THE IMPACT OF WAR ON GLOBAL AVIATION ECONOMICS: A LEGAL AND REGULATORY STUDY

Abstract

Aviation occupies a peculiar position in global commerce it is at once a strategic national asset and a creature of international economic interdependence in ways that few other industries can claim. When wars erupt, their consequences ripple swiftly and disproportionately through the aviation sector. This article examines the multidimensional economic and legal disruptions that armed conflicts impose on civil aviation, with particular attention to fuel price volatility, airline insolvency, ticket inflation, and war-risk insurance costs. It analyses the adequacy of existing legal frameworks including the Chicago Convention, the Warsaw and Montreal Conventions, bilateral air services agreements, and national competition law in addressing these disruptions. The paper further examines how governments have responded through emergency subsidies, state aid, and regulatory forbearance, while interrogating whether such interventions are consistent with international competition law norms, particularly under the World Trade Organisation framework and the European Union state aid regime. Drawing on the experiences of the Gulf War (1990– 1991), the September 11 aftermath, the Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022 onwards), and the COVID19 pandemic as an analogous economic shock, the article concludes that existing legal frameworks are structurally ill-suited to address war-induced aviation crises and advocates for a dedicated multilateral legal instrument for aviation economic emergency management.